Credibility of Central Banks Inflation Forecasts
Abstract
Modern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. According to the concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT), inflation forecasts play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be a specific intermediate target. The aim of the study is to analyse the credibility of inflation forecasts published by the central banks of England, Sweden and Norway. The article presents the proposition of an inflation forecast credibility index. The inflation forecasts’ credibility index may be calculated for all types of inflation forecasts made by central banks, which implement an inflation targeting (IT) regime. It consists of three main elements: the accuracy of the forecasts, the similarity of the forecasts and the inflation forecast deviations from the inflation target. The credibility index has been calculated for the inflation forecasts made by central banks of England, Sweden and Norway. The research conducted shows that most of the inflation forecasts published in selected central banks were credible.
Collections
- Artykuły / Articles [16126]
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa - Użycie niekomercyjne - Bez
utworów zależnych 3.0 Polska
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
What is the Central Bank Effectively Targeting in Practice? Svensson’s Concept of Inflation Forecast Targeting and Measures of Inflation Projections - the Experiences of Selected European Countries
Tura-Gawron, Karolina (GUT Faculty of Management and Economics Working Papers Series A, 2016-07)This article presents a comparative study of central paths’ projections of Consumer Price Index (CPI index), core inflation and monetary policy-relevant inflation measure (MPRI) in the central banks of Sweden, Norway and ... -
Those Inconspicuous Journals: Are They Scholarly Publications?
Hollender, Henryk (Państwowa Medyczna Wyższa Szkoła Zawodowa w Opolu, 2015-12-31)We see them in libraries, and we sense the differences between them and highly-cited literature. We know that many authors’ ambition is to have a paper published in one of them. What is their role in the circulation of ... -
Aretologiczne i wychowawcze implikacje zjawiska inflacji słowa
Nowakowski, Piotr T. (Katolicki Uniwersytet Lubelski Jana Pawła II - Instytut Jana Pawła II, Wydział Filozofii, 2021)The author addresses aretological and educational issues related to the contemporary phenomenon of the inflation of words. The development of modern means of communication made it possible for human beings to broadcast ...