The Effect of Expert Evaluations on the Efficiency of Decision Processes in Power Distribution Systems

Abstract

The paper gives the results of tests carried out for utility operational staff (experts) to estimate the form and parameters of a probability density function of errors (which are committed by experts) in evaluation of peak loads at receiving buses. Special computer simulation studies were designed and executed to analyze the effects of load estimation errors on the results of power distribution systems performance calculations. From the results of simulation tests, probabilistic models of calculational errors made on the distribution systems were formulated.