Challenges of project planning in the probabilistic approach using PERT, GERT and Monte Carlo
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Given the complexity and innovation of projects, project managers are increasingly forced to take into account the aspect of risk and uncertainty in project planning. The aim of the article is to present project management best planning practices: the Program Evaluation and Review Technique, the Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique and Monte Carlo simulation, as well as to present benefits of employment Monte Carlo simulation along with those methods. The research methodology included literature review of strengths and weaknesses of three techniques and the analysis of PERT and Monte Carlo simulation results for estimating the budget for the construction project presented in a case study. Automated Monte Carlo simulation was modeled and performed in MS Excel with additional Monte Carlo add-on “@Risk for Excel”. Key findings of the comparative study show that using Monte Carlo along with project planning techniques allows better understanding of project uncertainty and its risk level as well as provides project team with the ability to grasp various possible courses of the project within one simulation procedure.
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