Application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to the development of a reliability model of an automotive vehicle

Abstract

A possibility of applying the theory of semi-Markov (semimarkovian) processes to the description of the reliability of an automotive vehicle has been presented, with taking a passenger car as an example. In the car considered, such constructional systems (functional components) as engine with fuel, lube oil, and coolant feeding systems, clutch, gearbox, drive shaft, driving axle, steering and suspension system, braking system, electrical system, body with chassis, and measuring and monitoring equipment have been distinguished. A reliability model of the car has been developed in the form of a semi-Markov process, which is a single-state model. The set of reliability states has been built as consisting of one state of car serviceability and ten states of the functional components as specified above. A graph of changes in these states has been shown and an initial distribution and a functional matrix representing changes in the said reliability states of the car have been defined. Formulas have been derived that define the boundary distribution of the process of changes in the technical states of such a car. This distribution represents the probability of the car being serviceable and unserviceable due to a failure of any of the functional components mentioned above. The possibility of using statistics to estimate the probabilities of changes in the said car reliability states has been presented. A possibility of applying the theory of semi-Markov processes to the investigation of car reliability in the case of defining the instantaneous distribution of the process of changes in the car reliability states has also been mentioned.