New Silk Road – a weak or a strong signal?

Abstract

The dynamics and complexity of the environment, in which enterprises operate requires both constant scanning of the environment as well as adapting long-term operational strategies to occurring changes. The analysis of the so-called weak signals is increasingly becoming the most important part of business environment scanning. Weak signals indicate the symptoms of possible changes in the future. They could be interpreted either as a sign or as a phenomenon in the early stage of development. According to Ansoff H.I., weak signals should be used by organizations to undertake proactive and much ahead of actions. The sooner an organization reacts to weak signals from the environment, the greater is the probability to seize new, more risky opportunities. A distinguishing feature of weak signals, in addition to anticipating the future, is the stimulation of innovative processes, often challenging existing mental models. Weak signals can be both a prerequisite for the development of new products, and entering new markets. In the initial period of the occurrence of the phenomenon referred to as a weak signal, the number of people noticing the phenomenon is small. The information is not being disseminated, the signs are weak, almost invisible and immeasurable. Along with the collection of information on the phenomenon, the probability of its occurrence increases. More visible and measurable nature of the phenomenon allows organizations to implement their plans and strategies. These types of signals are known as strong signals, in contrast to weak ones, and the basic criterion differentiating them is higher probability of occurrence of a certain phenomenon/event. The aim of the article is to present the concept of the New Silk Road, as a strong signal – a phenomenon that in the future may have a significant impact on the socio-economic development of Poland. For the formal inauguration of measures aiming at rebuilding the Silk Road, one may recognize a speech, held on September 7, 2013 at the University of Nazarbayev in Astana (Kazakhstan), by the President of the Republic of China, Xi Jinping who first pointed out the need for the joint development of a new Silk Road Economic Belt. The aim of the initiative is to improve relationships, communication between China and Western Europe. Poland, with its strategic location, could become a hub connecting Asia with Western Europe.